Leroy N. Soetoro
2018-04-07 16:29:07 UTC
(CNN)New polling from CNN and other outlets indicates that President
Donald Trump's job approval has improved since mid-December, and that the
Democrats' advantage over Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections
The reasons are obvious -- the Republicans cut taxes, the economy is good,
and people largely approve of Trump's moves to break the logjam with North
Korea. Basically, people like peace and prosperity. Or, as philosopher and
fictional minor league baseball pitcher "Nuke" LaLoosh once opined: "I
love winning, man. ... It's like better than losing."
The danger for Republicans, of course, is that peace and prosperity won't
be enough to overcome the head winds they face. History is not on their
side, as the party in power almost always loses seats in a president's
first midterm. And Trump, despite the polling improvement, still carries a
job approval well below what any GOP strategist would tell you is
necessary to overcome history.
Polling averages today put Trump between 41% and 42%, depending on which
tracker you use (and whether you look at polls of voters or mix in surveys
of adults, not all of whom are registered to vote). By comparison, let's
look at Gallup job approval numbers for President Barack Obama in the four
polls leading into the 2010 midterm in which Republicans walloped the
Democrats: 46, 45, 44, 45.
So even as Trump improves, Democrats should feel good that he has not
improved enough to reach a level that would help his party overcome
history. There are structural problems in the surveys (chiefly the gender
gap) that might hold down Trump's ceiling as he continues to struggle
mightily to gain the support of non-Republican women.
What Democrats should be more concerned about is the generic ballot, where
their advantage shrunk to just 6 points in March, according to CNN's poll,
a massive 10-point shift from their 16-point lead in February. While a 50%
to 44% lead might sound good, remember that the sentiment reflected here
essentially measures what the national popular House vote would look like
but does not determine individual district results.
It is entirely possible for the Democrats to win more overall votes for
the US House and not win the chamber. They could even win it by 6 points
nationally and still not win a majority of seats, according to my favorite
House handicapper, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.
While some people reflexively argue that gerrymandering is the culprit,
Wasserman points out that other factors -- such as the urban cloistering
of the most partisan Democratic voters, incumbency and uncontested races -
- are also to blame for this possibility. According to the average of
generic ballot polling as tracked by several aggregators, the Democrats'
lead is 6 to 7 points, right in line with CNN's data.
So why are Democrats struggling to grow their generic ballot advantage?
Because they continue to ignore three political realities: Most Americans
aren't as liberal as their outraged base voters (especially in urban
areas); most voters want their taxes to go down instead of up; and most
voters want the parties to work together when it makes sense. I'll give
you examples of each:
The census outrage: This week, Democrats were in a full-scale meltdown
because the Trump administration decided to add a citizenship question to
the 2020 census form. Democratic attorneys general readied their lawsuits.
Liberal talking heads took to the airwaves. Democratic members of Congress
wrote the most vitriolic statements their trembling hands could muster.
Meanwhile, most of America said: "What's the big deal?" There is nothing
remotely illogical or illegal about the United States figuring out how
many citizens it has, as it seems like a common-sense thing to know. Our
government can tell us how many zoologists are employed in each state but
can't count the total number of citizens? What a crock, and the associated
outrage reminded me of Nancy Pelosi's unhinged claim of a looming
"apocalypse" should the Republicans cut taxes.
Repeal the tax cuts? Democrats overreached on the tax cuts and squandered
credibility when discussing the economy. And now, not satisfied with the
damage they did themselves by block voting against the Republican tax cuts
in December, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has rolled out a plan to
repeal the Trump tax cuts. They are calling it an "infrastructure plan,"
but I know what it will be called in campaign ads this fall: Chuck and
Nancy's plan to raise your taxes. Republican strategists are chuckling
about this boneheaded move.
Finally, the liberal resistance to all things Trump doesn't square with
recent polling conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee. Here's the way Axios reported it:
"New internal polling ... suggests that Democratic candidates running in
swing districts 'must express a willingness to work with the President
when his agenda might help the district.' The survey also recommends that
Democrats 'not appear out of sync with what people believe about the
Squaring that strategy with the huge number of "nasty" Democratic
primaries will be impossible as candidates seek to outdo each other with
increasingly strident anti-Trump rhetoric. The "resistance" may nominate a
bunch of candidates who can't connect with average voters who like their
lower taxes, job security and life in a world at relative peace, all
thanks to Donald Trump and his Republican Party.
I continue to favor Democrats slightly to win the House, but it isn't a
done deal. The Democratic enthusiasm advantage is real, and the historical
trends are no joke. But like the 2016 presidential campaign, there are
things in the water making this a choppier ride than it ought to be for
the party out of power.
Donald J. Trump, 304 electoral votes to 227, defeated compulsive liar in
denial Hillary Rodham Clinton on December 19th, 2016. The clown car
parade of the democrat party ran out of gas and got run over by a Trump
Congratulations President Trump. Thank you for cleaning up the disaster
of the Obama presidency.
Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp.
ObamaCare is a total 100% failure and no lie that can be put forth by its
supporters can dispute that.
Obama jobs, the result of ObamaCare. 12-15 working hours a week at minimum
wage, no benefits and the primary revenue stream for ObamaCare. It can't
be funded with money people don't have, yet liberals lie about how great
Obama increased total debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion in the eight
years he was in office, and sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood queer
liberal democrat donors.