Discussion:
How much does Biden have to win the popular vote to win the election?
Add Reply
Josh Rosenbluth
2020-09-05 18:45:49 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Here is one forecast
(https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632?p=v)

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X
points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22% (that's small too).
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
Johnny
2020-09-05 19:20:54 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Sat, 5 Sep 2020 11:45:49 -0700
Post by Josh Rosenbluth
Here is one forecast
(https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632?p=v)
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22% (that's small too).
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
I don't know who this NateSilver is, but he also said Biden isn't safe
with the Electoral college unless he wins by 5 points.

He doesn't have to worry though, Trump will win by a landslide popular
vote.
Josh Rosenbluth
2020-09-05 22:12:47 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Johnny
On Sat, 5 Sep 2020 11:45:49 -0700
Post by Josh Rosenbluth
Here is one forecast
(https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632?p=v)
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22% (that's small too).
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
I don't know who this NateSilver is, but he also said Biden isn't safe
with the Electoral college unless he wins by 5 points.
Nate Silver runs fivethirtyeight.com, the one poll aggregation website
that gave the highest chance of Trump winning in 2016 (29%).
Post by Johnny
He doesn't have to worry though, Trump will win by a landslide popular
vote.
I will give you 2-to-1 odds on that one.

El Castor
2020-09-05 19:25:29 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Josh Rosenbluth
Here is one forecast
(https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632?p=v)
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22% (that's small too).
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
If Biden wins and the Democrat Party gains control of the House and
Senate, what are the chances that an economic calamity will ensue?
100%

When the calamity ensues, what are the chances that Democrats will
blame Trump?
100%
me
2020-09-05 19:35:31 UTC
Reply
Permalink
What’s the chance eonomic calamity strikes anyway within the next 4 yrs? At least enough of it for social calamity?
Loading...