Discussion:
Should we hold back vaccine for second doses?
(too old to reply)
islander
2021-01-13 00:58:04 UTC
Permalink
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.

That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.

So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.

As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.

Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
El Castor
2021-01-13 06:31:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by islander
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.
That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.
So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.
As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.
Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
Complicated issue. I've read varying accounts of the efficacy of the
first dose -- perhaps 52%, the second 95%. The first rounds are being
given to high risk individuals -- hospital workers, workers and
residents in homes for the elderly, and those over 75. Around here
those should be taken care of end of February, early March. Perhaps
after that, maybe delay the second dose until the population has the
first round, but I doubt that the studies are currently in on the
efficacy of that approach. Going forward with that plan without a
complete understanding of the effects of a delayed second dose seems
foolish, particularly since other manufacturers are almost ready to
introduce their own vaccines.
El Castor
2021-01-13 18:37:05 UTC
Permalink
On Tue, 12 Jan 2021 22:31:32 -0800, El Castor
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.
That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.
So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.
As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.
Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
Complicated issue. I've read varying accounts of the efficacy of the
first dose -- perhaps 52%, the second 95%. The first rounds are being
given to high risk individuals -- hospital workers, workers and
residents in homes for the elderly, and those over 75. Around here
those should be taken care of end of February, early March. Perhaps
after that, maybe delay the second dose until the population has the
first round, but I doubt that the studies are currently in on the
efficacy of that approach. Going forward with that plan without a
complete understanding of the effects of a delayed second dose seems
foolish, particularly since other manufacturers are almost ready to
introduce their own vaccines.
BTW -- Here is something from a Kaiser Permanente email on the phases
of the vaccination. This matches with info I'm seeing on the County
web site.

" Phased approach — Federal health officials are using a phased
approach to prioritize general groups of people eligible to receive
the vaccine. Phase 1a includes health care workers and residents of
long-term care facilities. The next group in Phase 1b includes people
75 and older and essential front-line workers, such as teachers,
firefighters, and grocery store employees.
State guidelines — States will use these federal recommendations to
make their own decisions about which groups of people to include in
the next phases."
islander
2021-01-14 15:59:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by El Castor
On Tue, 12 Jan 2021 22:31:32 -0800, El Castor
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.
That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.
So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.
As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.
Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
Complicated issue. I've read varying accounts of the efficacy of the
first dose -- perhaps 52%, the second 95%. The first rounds are being
given to high risk individuals -- hospital workers, workers and
residents in homes for the elderly, and those over 75. Around here
those should be taken care of end of February, early March. Perhaps
after that, maybe delay the second dose until the population has the
first round, but I doubt that the studies are currently in on the
efficacy of that approach. Going forward with that plan without a
complete understanding of the effects of a delayed second dose seems
foolish, particularly since other manufacturers are almost ready to
introduce their own vaccines.
BTW -- Here is something from a Kaiser Permanente email on the phases
of the vaccination. This matches with info I'm seeing on the County
web site.
" Phased approach — Federal health officials are using a phased
approach to prioritize general groups of people eligible to receive
the vaccine. Phase 1a includes health care workers and residents of
long-term care facilities. The next group in Phase 1b includes people
75 and older and essential front-line workers, such as teachers,
firefighters, and grocery store employees.
State guidelines — States will use these federal recommendations to
make their own decisions about which groups of people to include in
the next phases."
Yes, Washington State is also using these guidelines. While the state
can offer no assurances as to when they will receive the next batches,
it is likely that my wife and I will be getting our first dose later
this month. The bottle neck here seems to be that our county government
is insisting that only county health personnel give the shots until
others can be "trained." While the county has received 800 doses, they
have only given 250 shots so far. So they are traveling around the
county, island to island where they set up to give shots one day per
week. We should be doing much better, but seem to be completely
unprepared to involve perfectly well prepared health care professionals
in giving the shots. We should be doing better! We have been supplied
with the Moderna vaccine, so there are no serious refrigeration constraints.
Not At All
2021-01-14 19:44:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by El Castor
BTW -- Here is something from a Kaiser Permanente email on the phases
of the vaccination. This matches with info I'm seeing on the County
web site.
" Phased approach — Federal health officials are using a phased
approach to prioritize general groups of people eligible to receive
the vaccine. Phase 1a includes health care workers and residents of
long-term care facilities. The next group in Phase 1b includes people
75 and older and essential front-line workers, such as teachers,
firefighters, and grocery store employees.
State guidelines — States will use these federal recommendations to
make their own decisions about which groups of people to include in
the next phases."
Yes, Washington State is also using these guidelines.  While the state
can offer no assurances as to when they will receive the next batches,
it is likely that my wife and I will be getting our first dose later
this month.
Kaiser Permanente policies will vary from state to state according to
state policies. In Oregon, immunizations will open up to all residents
65 and old as of January 23rd. But try to schedule an immunization at
the more popular locations - particularly metro Portland - and good
luck with that.

Instead, open time slots were found in Eugene. A couple of hours drive
each way for the vaccine? Yes, we'll do it. I imagine there are plenty
of people in less-populated parts of the country that will have to do
long-duration travel anyway, so ... no big deal.

I'm not eligible in this category until this spring.
islander
2021-01-14 15:48:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.
That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.
So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.
As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.
Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
Complicated issue. I've read varying accounts of the efficacy of the
first dose -- perhaps 52%, the second 95%. The first rounds are being
given to high risk individuals -- hospital workers, workers and
residents in homes for the elderly, and those over 75. Around here
those should be taken care of end of February, early March. Perhaps
after that, maybe delay the second dose until the population has the
first round, but I doubt that the studies are currently in on the
efficacy of that approach. Going forward with that plan without a
complete understanding of the effects of a delayed second dose seems
foolish, particularly since other manufacturers are almost ready to
introduce their own vaccines.
You do understand, don't you, that I am NOT suggesting that the second
dose be delayed.
El Castor
2021-01-14 19:17:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by islander
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.
That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.
So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.
As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.
Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
Complicated issue. I've read varying accounts of the efficacy of the
first dose -- perhaps 52%, the second 95%. The first rounds are being
given to high risk individuals -- hospital workers, workers and
residents in homes for the elderly, and those over 75. Around here
those should be taken care of end of February, early March. Perhaps
after that, maybe delay the second dose until the population has the
first round, but I doubt that the studies are currently in on the
efficacy of that approach. Going forward with that plan without a
complete understanding of the effects of a delayed second dose seems
foolish, particularly since other manufacturers are almost ready to
introduce their own vaccines.
You do understand, don't you, that I am NOT suggesting that the second
dose be delayed.
No I didn't understand that, but whatever, here is how it seems to be
working locally ...
"UPDATED 1/12/21: Currently, vaccinations are limited to healthcare
personnel defined Phase 1A (all tiers) of the state’s framework. Marin
County has received an additional allocation of vaccine from the State
of California and is now administering 1,000 vaccinations per day. We
are committed to continuing our rapid utilization and distribution of
all doses received."
https://coronavirus.marinhhs.org/vaccine/distribution

However there has been a screw-up ...
"Hundreds of people ineligible for coronavirus vaccinations signed up
for shots this week after a link to Marin County’s appointment system
was shared on social media, a health official said."
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/01/14/email-foul-up-in-marin-draws-ineligible-virus-vaccine-seekers/

At 1,000 vaccinations per day we could be looking at August or
September. However, Marin is home to many vaccination skeptics, so
maybe July? Aarghhh!

BTW -- even after receiving the vaccine you will be expected to wear a
mask in public. )-8

A worrisome aspect about all of this is the reality that with air
travel commonly available the world has become one community. Will
COVID-19 be the last global pandemic or just among the first?
islander
2021-01-14 23:03:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.
That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.
So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.
As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.
Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
Complicated issue. I've read varying accounts of the efficacy of the
first dose -- perhaps 52%, the second 95%. The first rounds are being
given to high risk individuals -- hospital workers, workers and
residents in homes for the elderly, and those over 75. Around here
those should be taken care of end of February, early March. Perhaps
after that, maybe delay the second dose until the population has the
first round, but I doubt that the studies are currently in on the
efficacy of that approach. Going forward with that plan without a
complete understanding of the effects of a delayed second dose seems
foolish, particularly since other manufacturers are almost ready to
introduce their own vaccines.
You do understand, don't you, that I am NOT suggesting that the second
dose be delayed.
No I didn't understand that, but whatever, here is how it seems to be
working locally ...
"UPDATED 1/12/21: Currently, vaccinations are limited to healthcare
personnel defined Phase 1A (all tiers) of the state’s framework. Marin
County has received an additional allocation of vaccine from the State
of California and is now administering 1,000 vaccinations per day. We
are committed to continuing our rapid utilization and distribution of
all doses received."
https://coronavirus.marinhhs.org/vaccine/distribution
However there has been a screw-up ...
"Hundreds of people ineligible for coronavirus vaccinations signed up
for shots this week after a link to Marin County’s appointment system
was shared on social media, a health official said."
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/01/14/email-foul-up-in-marin-draws-ineligible-virus-vaccine-seekers/
At 1,000 vaccinations per day we could be looking at August or
September. However, Marin is home to many vaccination skeptics, so
maybe July? Aarghhh!
BTW -- even after receiving the vaccine you will be expected to wear a
mask in public. )-8
A worrisome aspect about all of this is the reality that with air
travel commonly available the world has become one community. Will
COVID-19 be the last global pandemic or just among the first?
I wrote earlier that the vaccines do not prevent you from getting the
virus. It only makes it less severe. So there is a possibility that
you could still be contagious - hence the need to keep wearing a mask,
at least until they compile more data.

This is one of the reasons that people who have vulnerable people in
their household are included in phase 1b here.

As to people jumping the line, that is likely to happen. You may have
to sign a statement that you are eligible under the conditions specified
for the phase that you are in. We cannot expect the people dispensing
the vaccine to check everyone. There will also be some who will be
reporting people who they think are jumping the line. A crisis seems to
bring out the worst in some people, especially if they are scared.
El Castor
2021-01-15 06:10:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by islander
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.
That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.
So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.
As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.
Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
Complicated issue. I've read varying accounts of the efficacy of the
first dose -- perhaps 52%, the second 95%. The first rounds are being
given to high risk individuals -- hospital workers, workers and
residents in homes for the elderly, and those over 75. Around here
those should be taken care of end of February, early March. Perhaps
after that, maybe delay the second dose until the population has the
first round, but I doubt that the studies are currently in on the
efficacy of that approach. Going forward with that plan without a
complete understanding of the effects of a delayed second dose seems
foolish, particularly since other manufacturers are almost ready to
introduce their own vaccines.
You do understand, don't you, that I am NOT suggesting that the second
dose be delayed.
No I didn't understand that, but whatever, here is how it seems to be
working locally ...
"UPDATED 1/12/21: Currently, vaccinations are limited to healthcare
personnel defined Phase 1A (all tiers) of the state’s framework. Marin
County has received an additional allocation of vaccine from the State
of California and is now administering 1,000 vaccinations per day. We
are committed to continuing our rapid utilization and distribution of
all doses received."
https://coronavirus.marinhhs.org/vaccine/distribution
However there has been a screw-up ...
"Hundreds of people ineligible for coronavirus vaccinations signed up
for shots this week after a link to Marin County’s appointment system
was shared on social media, a health official said."
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/01/14/email-foul-up-in-marin-draws-ineligible-virus-vaccine-seekers/
At 1,000 vaccinations per day we could be looking at August or
September. However, Marin is home to many vaccination skeptics, so
maybe July? Aarghhh!
BTW -- even after receiving the vaccine you will be expected to wear a
mask in public. )-8
A worrisome aspect about all of this is the reality that with air
travel commonly available the world has become one community. Will
COVID-19 be the last global pandemic or just among the first?
I wrote earlier that the vaccines do not prevent you from getting the
virus. It only makes it less severe. So there is a possibility that
you could still be contagious - hence the need to keep wearing a mask,
at least until they compile more data.
Pfizer and Moderna seem to be, 2 shots 95% immune, meaning that your
chance of contracting the disease is reduced by 95%, but as you say,
it is not yet clear if, though you are without symptoms, might be
capable of transmitting the virus. So, wear the mask, if only to
prevent infecting others.
Post by islander
This is one of the reasons that people who have vulnerable people in
their household are included in phase 1b here.
As to people jumping the line, that is likely to happen. You may have
to sign a statement that you are eligible under the conditions specified
for the phase that you are in. We cannot expect the people dispensing
the vaccine to check everyone. There will also be some who will be
reporting people who they think are jumping the line. A crisis seems to
bring out the worst in some people, especially if they are scared.
The wife and I will not be jumping any lines. We are both Kaiser
patients and they know exactly who and what we are. I will never
forget coming down with the measles while on leave in the Navy. I
walked into Oak Knoll Naval Hospital, the nurse receptionist took one
look at me and said, step back please. (-8
islander
2021-01-15 16:27:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.
That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.
So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.
As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.
Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
Complicated issue. I've read varying accounts of the efficacy of the
first dose -- perhaps 52%, the second 95%. The first rounds are being
given to high risk individuals -- hospital workers, workers and
residents in homes for the elderly, and those over 75. Around here
those should be taken care of end of February, early March. Perhaps
after that, maybe delay the second dose until the population has the
first round, but I doubt that the studies are currently in on the
efficacy of that approach. Going forward with that plan without a
complete understanding of the effects of a delayed second dose seems
foolish, particularly since other manufacturers are almost ready to
introduce their own vaccines.
You do understand, don't you, that I am NOT suggesting that the second
dose be delayed.
No I didn't understand that, but whatever, here is how it seems to be
working locally ...
"UPDATED 1/12/21: Currently, vaccinations are limited to healthcare
personnel defined Phase 1A (all tiers) of the state’s framework. Marin
County has received an additional allocation of vaccine from the State
of California and is now administering 1,000 vaccinations per day. We
are committed to continuing our rapid utilization and distribution of
all doses received."
https://coronavirus.marinhhs.org/vaccine/distribution
However there has been a screw-up ...
"Hundreds of people ineligible for coronavirus vaccinations signed up
for shots this week after a link to Marin County’s appointment system
was shared on social media, a health official said."
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/01/14/email-foul-up-in-marin-draws-ineligible-virus-vaccine-seekers/
At 1,000 vaccinations per day we could be looking at August or
September. However, Marin is home to many vaccination skeptics, so
maybe July? Aarghhh!
BTW -- even after receiving the vaccine you will be expected to wear a
mask in public. )-8
A worrisome aspect about all of this is the reality that with air
travel commonly available the world has become one community. Will
COVID-19 be the last global pandemic or just among the first?
I wrote earlier that the vaccines do not prevent you from getting the
virus. It only makes it less severe. So there is a possibility that
you could still be contagious - hence the need to keep wearing a mask,
at least until they compile more data.
Pfizer and Moderna seem to be, 2 shots 95% immune, meaning that your
chance of contracting the disease is reduced by 95%, but as you say,
it is not yet clear if, though you are without symptoms, might be
capable of transmitting the virus. So, wear the mask, if only to
prevent infecting others.
Post by islander
This is one of the reasons that people who have vulnerable people in
their household are included in phase 1b here.
As to people jumping the line, that is likely to happen. You may have
to sign a statement that you are eligible under the conditions specified
for the phase that you are in. We cannot expect the people dispensing
the vaccine to check everyone. There will also be some who will be
reporting people who they think are jumping the line. A crisis seems to
bring out the worst in some people, especially if they are scared.
The wife and I will not be jumping any lines. We are both Kaiser
patients and they know exactly who and what we are. I will never
forget coming down with the measles while on leave in the Navy. I
walked into Oak Knoll Naval Hospital, the nurse receptionist took one
look at me and said, step back please. (-8
Washington state is giving people covered in 1a a week to get their
shots and will then open 1b. We need to go to the mainland next week
for medical appointments for my wife, so I am going to be especially
careful to avoid contracting the virus at this late date. It would be a
real shame to come down with it now! :(
El Castor
2021-01-15 19:54:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by islander
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
Post by El Castor
Post by islander
There appears to be some talk about vaccinating more people with a first
dose rather than holding back half of the vaccine allocated for the
second dose.
That seems to me to be a wasteful strategy considering that which is
used in supply chain management where it doesn't make much sense to
waste warehouse space for product that you know will not be needed until
a month from now. This would not only cost more, but would also
introduce delays in delivery. You basically rely on your supply chain
to manufacture and deliver product "just in time." This makes for a
much more efficient use of time, materials and storage.
So, why don't we do that for the vaccine? I'm guessing that it is lack
of trust. The Warp Speed program has not demonstrated efficient much
less reliable delivery of the vaccine. Essentially, the federal
government is responsible for the contracts that specify the delivery of
the designated amounts of vaccine to the states and then claim that
their job is done! It is up to the states to then distribute their
allotment to the local governments and ultimately to health care
professionals to get the vaccine into people's arms. It is like our
supply chain is broken in two with the consequent confusion that might
be expected.
As a result, there is no single entity in control or it even anyone
tracking inventory. Here in Washington State, we have an application
plan, but without dates. Everyone is waiting until they are sure that
the vaccine is actually allocated AND delivered. I expect that this is
true in other states as well.
Folks, this is not rocket science. Can't we find someone who
understands supply chains to put in charge? I'll bet that Amazon could
do it!
Complicated issue. I've read varying accounts of the efficacy of the
first dose -- perhaps 52%, the second 95%. The first rounds are being
given to high risk individuals -- hospital workers, workers and
residents in homes for the elderly, and those over 75. Around here
those should be taken care of end of February, early March. Perhaps
after that, maybe delay the second dose until the population has the
first round, but I doubt that the studies are currently in on the
efficacy of that approach. Going forward with that plan without a
complete understanding of the effects of a delayed second dose seems
foolish, particularly since other manufacturers are almost ready to
introduce their own vaccines.
You do understand, don't you, that I am NOT suggesting that the second
dose be delayed.
No I didn't understand that, but whatever, here is how it seems to be
working locally ...
"UPDATED 1/12/21: Currently, vaccinations are limited to healthcare
personnel defined Phase 1A (all tiers) of the state’s framework. Marin
County has received an additional allocation of vaccine from the State
of California and is now administering 1,000 vaccinations per day. We
are committed to continuing our rapid utilization and distribution of
all doses received."
https://coronavirus.marinhhs.org/vaccine/distribution
However there has been a screw-up ...
"Hundreds of people ineligible for coronavirus vaccinations signed up
for shots this week after a link to Marin County’s appointment system
was shared on social media, a health official said."
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/01/14/email-foul-up-in-marin-draws-ineligible-virus-vaccine-seekers/
At 1,000 vaccinations per day we could be looking at August or
September. However, Marin is home to many vaccination skeptics, so
maybe July? Aarghhh!
BTW -- even after receiving the vaccine you will be expected to wear a
mask in public. )-8
A worrisome aspect about all of this is the reality that with air
travel commonly available the world has become one community. Will
COVID-19 be the last global pandemic or just among the first?
I wrote earlier that the vaccines do not prevent you from getting the
virus. It only makes it less severe. So there is a possibility that
you could still be contagious - hence the need to keep wearing a mask,
at least until they compile more data.
Pfizer and Moderna seem to be, 2 shots 95% immune, meaning that your
chance of contracting the disease is reduced by 95%, but as you say,
it is not yet clear if, though you are without symptoms, might be
capable of transmitting the virus. So, wear the mask, if only to
prevent infecting others.
Post by islander
This is one of the reasons that people who have vulnerable people in
their household are included in phase 1b here.
As to people jumping the line, that is likely to happen. You may have
to sign a statement that you are eligible under the conditions specified
for the phase that you are in. We cannot expect the people dispensing
the vaccine to check everyone. There will also be some who will be
reporting people who they think are jumping the line. A crisis seems to
bring out the worst in some people, especially if they are scared.
The wife and I will not be jumping any lines. We are both Kaiser
patients and they know exactly who and what we are. I will never
forget coming down with the measles while on leave in the Navy. I
walked into Oak Knoll Naval Hospital, the nurse receptionist took one
look at me and said, step back please. (-8
Washington state is giving people covered in 1a a week to get their
shots and will then open 1b. We need to go to the mainland next week
for medical appointments for my wife, so I am going to be especially
careful to avoid contracting the virus at this late date. It would be a
real shame to come down with it now! :(
The situation is changing in California and Marin. 1b now includes
65+. Since 43% of Marin is 65+, and probably more than 50% of Kaiser
patients are in that age group, it looks like Kaiser will be pretty
busy. At the moment Kaiser is only taking phone appointments, and is
swamped, but I understand they are working on a web page that will
allow on-line appointments.

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